Today is opening day for Major League Baseball (MLB). Just a reminder that the most commonly used sports bet is the moneyline bet – which is based on odds or probabilities. Low scoring sports such as baseball or hockey (or soccer) use moneylines. Higher scoring sports such as basketball or football use point spreads.
If you see a game quoted as -120 / +110, remember that this is always based versus 100.
- That is, if you bet on the favorite, you are betting in the ratio 120 (-120) to win 100.
- If you bet on the underdog, you are betting 100 to win the 110 (+110).
- The difference in payout vs. money bet is the vigorish, vig, or commission
Here are some general baseball betting tips:
- It generally pays to bet on small favorites up to moderate underdogs. We prefer the range between -130 up to +190.
- Large favorites (-150 or worse) are difficult to make money with – unless the team is hugely undervalued.
- If we like a heavy favorite, we consider parlays with other favorites or might take the run line (for instance, the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs).
- Starting pitchers impact game odds tremendously - and for good reason.
- Our regular methods of seeking value apply for MLB, and moneyline sports, in general. Note, however, that the percentages get skewed a bit for heavy favorites and underdogs.
Here's a Free Pick for First Day of the MLB season: Take the Royals and “plus” odds (underdog) - with signs of smart money on them.
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