Our normal Blog post schedule is on:&nbsp;<ul><li>The Weekend (Saturday or Sunday),</li><li>Tuesday, and&nbsp;</li><li>Thursday.</li></ul>However, our SIC (SportsInvestingClub) team was excited about Game 7 of the NBA Semi-Finals, so we will take the opportunity to publish Tuesday's edition early – and study the sports marketplace and describe what we see. &nbsp;What do the numbers say about this evening's game between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat? &nbsp;<ul><li>Background:&nbsp;<ul><li>Boston entered this year's playoffs as one of favorites to win the NBA title. &nbsp;And certainly, the Celtics were the favorite in this series. &nbsp;</li><li>After Miami went up three games to none, many analysts talked about their team dynamics (whole greater than the sum) and Roster Construction. &nbsp;</li></ul></li><li>Public Betting: The first thing we circled was the low percentage of point spread bets on the Celtics. A large majority of bets are on Miami. &nbsp;This shows that there is some contrarian value on the Celtics, giving the points. &nbsp;</li><li>Actual Dollars Bet: We study the actual dollars bet to see if the bigger bettors (and typically smart money) is different than the percentage of bets. &nbsp;This indicator is neutral; the percentage of dollars bet is similar to the actual percentage of bets. &nbsp;The sharps do not lean one way or the other. &nbsp;</li><li>Overall, we see some value on the Celtics -7 or -7.5.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Interestingly, the sports marketplace shows two potential types of plays – that you might consider, based on your rooting interests:&nbsp;<ul><li>On the Moneyline, we see signs of smart money taking Miami (and getting some nice odds). &nbsp;You can't blame bettors for taking this bet since this is a Game 7! &nbsp;</li><li>Contrarian bettors might go for the Celtics and give the points. &nbsp;</li></ul></li></ul>Enjoy the game! &nbsp;&nbsp;

A closer look at what the sports marketplace says about Game 7 between the Boston Celtics & Miami Heat. 

5/29/23: NBA Semis Game 7!  

On Thursday, your Sports Investing Club offered the Celtics as a winning Free Bet that covered – even against a relatively large point spread. &nbsp;Today, with Miami at home, the Celtics are a very slight favorite. &nbsp;What do the sports marketplace numbers say today? &nbsp;Members: Please login to your SIC account and check out plays in multiple sports! &nbsp;

What do the sports marketplace numbers say about today's NBA clash between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat?  

5/27/23: Celtics Again? 

Our Members again have plays in each of the current major sports. &nbsp;Please login to see those plays! &nbsp;Today, we have a Free Bet – in the NBA! &nbsp;We do not love giving so many points – but our indicators like the Celtics and giving 8 points at the time of writing. &nbsp;Take the Celtic and Give the points. &nbsp; &nbsp;

5/25/23: Thursday Free Bet

Sports fans have activity in multiple sports, as usual, at this time of the year.&nbsp;All of today's MLB games are evening games. &nbsp;Members: Please login to check out the filtered plays! &nbsp;&nbsp;Big sports fans also have the NBA &amp; NHL playoffs. &nbsp;In the NHL's Western Final, the Dallas Stars try to get back into their series against the Vegas Golden Knights, trailing 2 games to none, as -150 favorites. &nbsp;&nbsp;In the NBA Semi-Finals, the surprising Miami Heat look to sweep the Celtics. &nbsp;The Celtics entered the series as strong favorites. &nbsp;What do the sports marketplace numbers say for these sports match-ups? &nbsp;Please login and/or join the SportsInvestingClub to put data analysis behind your plays! &nbsp;

Tuesday's sports marketplace includes MLB, the NHL and the NBA.  

5/23/23: Tuesday Sports Talk 

Based on early marketplace figures, our team circled the underdog Cubs. &nbsp;&nbsp;Members: Can you tell why? &nbsp;&nbsp;Please login for plays later today and this weekend as more data comes in!

5/20/23: Saturday Free Bet

On Tuesday, our Members had the Lakers as a play. &nbsp;<ul><li>Some of our Members got +6.5 on the Lakers; others got +6 – and on Tuesday, that made the difference between a push (tie) – and a win. &nbsp;</li><li>It's very interesting: our filters and systems generally use the Betting Percentages and Money Percentages. &nbsp;</li><li>We also study Line Movement, so the percentages are not necessary the only indicator. &nbsp;</li><li>Note that it is best to shop for the best line you can get. &nbsp;That is, if you have more than one sportsbooks, compare the line and odds/vig that each sportsbook is pricing. &nbsp;</li><li>Tip: if you are betting on an underdog, it is best to wait until a bit closer to game time because lines often move in the direction of the favorite. &nbsp;<ul><li>Therefore, if betting on a favorite, it often pays to bet on the earlier side. &nbsp;</li><li>IF you are betting on the underdog, and the line worsens, meaning you get +5.5 insterad of the earlier +6, this is a sign that Sharps and Big Money is on that underdog. &nbsp;</li><li>In this case, we would jump on that line. &nbsp;</li></ul></li><li>For a nominal monthly fee, please join our Sports investing Club! &nbsp;There are plays in each of the major sports today! &nbsp;</li></ul>

5/18/23: Thursday Sports Betting Talk

As the NBA playoffs got started, we wrote about the Lakers' season and how they ended the season strongly after their slow start. &nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://blog.sportsinvestingclub.com/article/4-15-23-nba-and-nhl-playoffs">https://blog.sportsinvestingclub.com/article/4-15-23-nba-and-nhl-playoffs</a>LeBron James, being an all-time great – remains one of the top NBA stars and should make this a good series! &nbsp;What do the sports marketplace stats say about this evenings games? &nbsp;Our Members can see the statistics and filters – and see if our analysts are on the Lakers or Nuggets tonight. &nbsp;Please join our SIC Club (if you haven't already)! &nbsp;

The NBA's playoffs are heating up -- and LeBron's Lakers are in the thick of things.  What do the numbers say?

5/16/23: LeBron's Lakers? 

With so much activity, ranging from MLB and the NHL today, to Game 7 between the NBA Celtics and 76ers on Sunday, sports fans have a lot of sports to choose from. &nbsp;And, sports bets to get down! &nbsp;Over the very long-term, our methods have proven to achieve a 3% to 5% edge against the sportsbooks. &nbsp;Our Members can use our plays as standalone picks or to filter the plays with their own favorite picks or methods. &nbsp;This weekend, Members who login will see several plays. &nbsp;Sometimes, our readers ask us about Parlays. &nbsp;Now – our individual plays have an edge, so if you Parlay, you would think that you retain an edge. &nbsp;However, there are at least three factors working against parlay bettors. &nbsp;Firstly, it's a feast or famine deal. &nbsp;Most bets are close to a 50/50 proposition. &nbsp;However, unless you pick heavy favorites, even a 2-way parlay has only about a 25% chance of hitting.In addition, sports books are not in the business of giving money away. &nbsp;Pricing for parlays helps to reduce the edge that we see in individual games.&nbsp;Thirdly, some parlays – especially so called "Same-Game-Parlays" are correlated. &nbsp;This means that sports books will reduce the payout for certain parlays – and again shade the pricing against the bettor. &nbsp;And – don't take our word for it! &nbsp;Various sources show that anywhere from 45% to 67% of sports book profits come from parlays.&nbsp; While we DO sometimes like to take a flyer and combine a few parlays, please use parlays paringly. &nbsp;Members: please login for our selected plays! &nbsp;And – please drill down to individual sports for plays. &nbsp;&nbsp;

A look at Parlays: This weekend, our Members have a lot of sports activity and filtered plays.  Most bettors should bet on individual plays, but some fans like parlays.  

5/13/23: To Parlay or Not...

Our blog has been focused on the NBA and NHL a bit. &nbsp;Lest you think that we are neglecting baseball (MLB) – which is in full swing, today, we review the MLB board. &nbsp;What game did our team circle?In early sports marketplace action, we like the “restocked” Yankees against the still red-hot Tampa Bay Rays. &nbsp;Are the Rays really overvalued? &nbsp;But they – and no team, certainly – is an .800 team?! &nbsp;Aaron Judge and his .900 OPS is back – and we look for TB to come back to earth. &nbsp;Take the slight underdog Yankees at home. &nbsp;

Thursday sports marketplace.  What team did our SIC Team circle today?  

5/11/23: Thursday Sports

The NBA and NHL playoffs are heating up – and we circled a few games this evening. &nbsp;As Free Play – we will be on the Celtics. &nbsp;They were SO close to putting th 76ers on the brink over the weekend. &nbsp;It sometimes appears that basketball teams can exert their will and break ahead of their oponents. &nbsp;We think that we'll see a sustained complete game for the Celtics this evening. &nbsp;And our thoughts are backed up by early sports marketplace indicators. &nbsp;Give the points and take the Celtics at home.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Gotta get in a playoff play while the NBA & NHL are still going on!  

5/9/23: Tuesday Playoff Play

In MLB, Tampa Bay is still winning – and improving their record against good teams! &nbsp;AND – crazily enough, the Yankees are in last place! &nbsp;Our fundamental statistics show that the TB is overvalued and the Yankees are slightly undervalued. &nbsp;In addition, today's sports marketplace indicators and betting percentages shows value on the underdog Yankees - who are visiting TB. &nbsp;We like the +145 to +150 we see out there. &nbsp;&nbsp;

5/6/23: SIC Saturday Sports Play

We hope that you logged on earlier today! &nbsp;Today had all early games – and Members who logged in would have enjoyed a win as Detroit beat Verlander and the Mets at around +150 odds.The A's represent a long-shot play at about +220 (especially since it was just a “Lean” – and we generally place smaller money on the longer odds (since the payout is higher). &nbsp;The Marlins are also a “Lean” - but they are currently losing. &nbsp;In NBA and NHL action tonight – there's not much activity, but some great playoff action. &nbsp;The marketplace doesn't show much value on the Sides – but our Members have plays and leans on the Totals. &nbsp;Enjoy! &nbsp;&nbsp;

5/4/23: Thursday Recap

We DO like LeBron and the Lakers as he builds his legacy. &nbsp;As we mentioned in a previous post, the Lakers finished the season strong - indicating potential value (due to their crazily slow start to the season!). &nbsp;And, today's sports marketplace numbers point to value on the Lakers. &nbsp;Take the Lakers and the points! &nbsp;

5/2/23: Tuesday Tip (Free NBA Play)

At SIC, your "Sports Investing Club" - we look for value in multiple ways. &nbsp;Our bread and butter involves sports marketplace indicators such as betting percentages and actual dollars bet. &nbsp;In addition, we monitor and systematize other methods that flag long-term value. &nbsp;Our Members have access to automated systems in college sports.&nbsp; Here is a sampling of results in the young MLB season. &nbsp;Did you know?<ul><li>&nbsp;Although Tampa Bay seems like world beaters, they have just a 2-4 record vs. teams better than .500. &nbsp;We DO think TB is a solid team, but be aware that they are overvalued.&nbsp;</li><li>On the other hand, the following teams are playing well – under the radar and have some of the best records against good competition. &nbsp;We would bet on these teams because they are undervalued, especially in the -115 to +150 range:<ul><li>Milwaukee</li><li>Texas</li><li>Toronto</li><li>Arizona</li></ul></li><li>What about some of the big name teams?&nbsp;<ul><li>The Dodgers are not currently rolling over the competition, but they have had a tough schedule. &nbsp;They remain solid and will rise to the top over the long season. &nbsp;Perhaps undervalued due to their relatively slow start! &nbsp;</li><li>The Yankees have been steady - and look to be solid. &nbsp;Neutral.</li><li>Atlanta has played well, partly due to a soft schedule. Overvalued.&nbsp;</li><li>Houston – remains the Houston of recent years. &nbsp;They are playing well, but because they have been so successful, generally overvalued. &nbsp;</li><li>The Mets are a Jekyll &amp; Hyde team. &nbsp;Injuries and inconsistency in the heart of their batting order has led to underperformance. &nbsp;Although they are winning a decent percentage of games, their schedule has been soft. &nbsp;With some young blood playing with the Mets, we like the mix of youth and veterans. &nbsp;We believe that the slow start has the Mets slightly undervalued. &nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul></li></ul>We would look to tail and fade these teams accordingly. &nbsp;Members: please login and align recommended plays (and your plays!) with this list! &nbsp;

A look at MLB teams that may be overvalued and undervalued. 

4/29/23: SIC MLB - Did you know?  

As games dwindle in the NBA and NHL, our Members may note that several of our highlighted plays yesterday were on Totals. &nbsp;On average, the general public roots for high-scoring games. &nbsp;Thus, there is generally value on the Under in totals. &nbsp;Over the years, this edge has decreased a bit – but historical data and results show that the Under is still normally the way to go. &nbsp;In some ways, we view the Under as walking a tightrope to value.&nbsp; As the minutes or innings tick by – we are threading a needle to that value. &nbsp;Although we normally prefer to take the Under, we need verification from our sports marketplace indicators. &nbsp; &nbsp;In today's action, we currently have a play on the Total in the NBA game (Members: please login to view). &nbsp;In addition, we currently have a LEAN on the Under in the Rangers-Devils hockey game.&nbsp;&nbsp;

4/27/23: Totals (Don't Forget About Totals)

With the NBA Playoffs and NHL Playoffs marching forward, there are fewer and fewer games on the board. &nbsp;Tonight, we'll mention the NBA's late game – and give an example of sports marketplace indicators. &nbsp;Note that both of these plays are merely LEANS – but give examples of tailing the Bigger, and normally Smarter, money. &nbsp;The Phoenix Suns and Under in that game both have less than half of the bets – BUT have a large majority of money (75% and 60% respectively) on the Suns and Under. &nbsp;This is the type of market action that we like to see. &nbsp;These leans might have been plays – but we normally like to see the percentage of bets less than about 40% (meaning a more contrarian play). &nbsp;

Following the smarter money in the late NBA game.  

4/25/23: Tuesday Late NBA Game

The title of this blog post was going to be, anything from:&nbsp;<ul><li>Every Half-Point Matters, to,</li><li>Shopping for the Best Line, to,</li><li>Betting Lines are Sharp, to,</li><li>Sportsbook Profit Margins, and other related topics.</li></ul>All of these ideas apply! &nbsp;And why do we discuss? &nbsp;On Thursday morning, we highlighted the Philadelphia 76ers at -4.5 point favorites as a value play. &nbsp;We also mentioned that when betting favorites, it often pays to bet on the early side. &nbsp;Indeed, we got down at Philly -4.5 but by early evening, some books were pricing Philly at -5. &nbsp;And, the lines are generally sharp - meaning that, on average, the lines represent fair value. &nbsp;(And, of course, the 76ers happened to win by 5 points!)<ul><li>Sports books generally try to balance risk (and money bet) on both sides of the bet. &nbsp;</li><li>However, the vig or -110 commission that sportsbooks collect, gives them some leeway. &nbsp;</li><li>To maximize profit margins, sportsbooks sometimes lean the line slightly to increase their profit margins! &nbsp;</li></ul>This is the type of edge that our Sports Investing Club tries to capture. &nbsp;SIC Members: Please login and check out the sports marketplace indicators AND a selective number of daily picks that offer value in the long-term.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Sportsbook profit margins, shopping for the best lines, and SIC! 

4/22/23: Every Half-Point Matters

In an earlier blog post, we said that we like the Philadelphia 76ers to outperform during this year's NBA playoffs. &nbsp;This long-term conviction, today - is supported by today's early sports marketplace action. &nbsp;It's interesting because we normally like to take underdogs. &nbsp;The 76ers are visiting favorites – but just slight favorites. &nbsp;AND – while most bets are coming in on the 76ers, almost all of the actual dollars are on the 76ers. &nbsp;The big money likes the 76ers over the superstar-depleted Nets. &nbsp;Did you know: that when taking the favorites, it sometimes pays to get down early because the line may be driven higher by the betting public?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Long-term value meets sports marketplace value. 

4/20/23: NBA - Philly "Phav" Value? 

Previously, we pointed to value on Cleveland in the NBA playoffs. &nbsp;The Knicks led Cleveland most of the way in game 1, but we think Cleveland will even the series and cover the spread. &nbsp;And, the sports marketplace believes this is the case too. &nbsp;Give the points today! &nbsp;

4/18/23: A Look at the NBA

Hopefully, you filed your taxes, so you can focus on the playoffs!&nbsp; The U.S. sports scene flows from one season into another. &nbsp;After football, we have March Madness. &nbsp;And now, as the baseball season gets into full swing, we also have playoff action in the NBA &amp; NHL. &nbsp;Here, we give a preview of our favorite: VALUE – in both basketball and hockey. &nbsp;Whether you are doing a playoff pool bracket – or betting individual games, please check this out. &nbsp;In the NBA, we like the following teams to make some noise during the playoffs:&nbsp;<ul><li>Cleveland: The Cavs won a ton of games under the radar. &nbsp;While Cleveland is good on both offense and defense, they shine on D. &nbsp;Look for Cleveland to make a name for themselves.&nbsp;</li><li>Philadelphia: The 76ers have a solid D and experience. &nbsp;And Embiid is one of the forces in the NBA.&nbsp;</li><li>Phoenix: may surprise some with their D. &nbsp;</li><li>Boston: This may go without saying, but with the Celtic getting just the #2 seed, there may be some value. &nbsp;They are the cream of the crop.&nbsp;</li><li>LA Lakers: After starting the season at 2-10 (that's right, 2 wins and 10 losses), the Lakers remained mediocre at 14-21 and 30-34, before ending the season at 44-39. &nbsp;This means the Lakers went 14-5 when it counted.&nbsp; While we don't expect a championship drive, we think there's still some gas left in LeBron's tank!&nbsp;</li></ul>And – what about the NHL?&nbsp;<ul><li>Edmonton: We normally like defense in the playoffs - and especially the NHL playoffs.&nbsp; However, Edmonton is making like the Great One's years – and is a scoring machine. &nbsp;Expect the Oilers to make noise in this year's playoffs. &nbsp;</li><li>Boston: The Bruins are the cream of the crop. &nbsp;They may not offer much value, but they may not be easily upset. &nbsp;</li><li>NY Islanders: &nbsp;After the Bruins, most of the other playoff teams are solid. &nbsp;And then, there are the Islanders. &nbsp;While they underperformed during the regular season, the Isles' style of play is made for the grinding, grueling playoffs. &nbsp;And – the Islanders should get two key players back in time for the playoffs: Barzal (out since February) and Romanov. The NHL playoffs can offer surprises: can we see a rematch of the Islanders-Oilers Stanley Cup Final? &nbsp; &nbsp;</li></ul>

4/15/23: NBA & NHL Playoffs!

We normally publish blog posts in the late afternoon or early evening on weekdays. &nbsp;However, with several MLB games in the early afternoon (late morning for those on the West Coast!) - we will sometimes publish in the morning. &nbsp;AND – we will especially publish a blog post when we see potential value.&nbsp;The Tampa Bay Rays are hitting on all cylinders currently - and have started the season 12-0. &nbsp;They can tie the modern MLB record of 13-0 to start the season – with a win in an early afternoon game against the Red Sox. &nbsp;Coincidentally, the Red Sox have lost 12 games in a row to the Rays on the road! &nbsp;Also coincidentally, today is the 13th of April… AND – the Rays have a good pitching matchup today. &nbsp;SO – do the Rays make it 13 in a row on April 13th? &nbsp;Many are riding this streak and story! &nbsp;However, the sports marketplace figures we study show that the big money is taking the underdog Red Sox. &nbsp;We will ride that value; and don't expect the Rays to go undefeated in April..??! &nbsp;(The Sox are fairly large dogs - so some might bet smaller.) &nbsp;

Tampa Bay Rays: Going for 13 in a row on April 13th!  

4/13/23: Thursday - TB Ray Day?  

The Tampa Bay Rays and their winning streak is gathering an increasing amount of attention! &nbsp;We'll focus this blog post on tonight's Rays-Red Sox game:<ul><li>Our Members will note that while bets are close to even, a larger percentage of the actual dollars is on the Red Sox. &nbsp;The smart money is looking for the Rays' streak to end. &nbsp;Because many bettors follow streaks, there should be value there. &nbsp;</li><li>In addition, the sports marketplace points to the Under in that game as well. &nbsp;</li><li>Please note that while a Parlay can leverage and multiple your winnings, parlays are also a hit or miss thing. &nbsp;That is, If you put all of your money on the parlay and hit the side or the total – but not the other, you lose the entire bet. &nbsp;<ul><li>We prefer to mix things up – betting on average about 1 unit on the side or total. &nbsp;And about ½ to ¾ unit on the parlay. &nbsp;</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;

A look at streaks, TB Rays, and parlays vs. sides/totals.  

4/11/23: TB Rays Streak!

Happy Easter and Happy Passover to you and your friends and families!&nbsp;Saturday's have a lot of sports action – and this is no exception. &nbsp;Our Members can login and see several plays for both sides and totals – across the major sports. &nbsp;We understand that most bettors focus on the sides. &nbsp;That is, most sports fans and bettors would root for a certain team to win. &nbsp;However, we wanted remind our readers that there is good value on totals as well. &nbsp;When Members login today, they will see plays for both sides and totals across all major sports. &nbsp;Just like underdogs are normally the smarter play when betting, the under is generally the sharper play. &nbsp;Sports fans often root for – and bet on – the over. &nbsp;(So, the contrarian play is to fade the casual bettor.). &nbsp; &nbsp;The “under” in some ways, is like walking a tightrope. &nbsp;BUT a walk that is often worth the bet more often than not. &nbsp;Today, we like several unders – and we'll take the Und 6.5 in the Det-Pitt NHL game. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

4/8/23: Happy Holidays.  Plus a look at Totals

With so many day games for MLB (Baseball) – we just wanted to remind our Members to login during the day. &nbsp;We have several flagged plays on MLB day games today.Happy Easter and Happy Passover to you and yours! &nbsp; &nbsp;

Just a reminder to our Members to login during the day.  We have several flagged plays on MLB day games.  

4/7/23: Reminder - MLB Day Games

With college hoops over, we will rotate and cover the different major sports in our blog. &nbsp;We haven't talked about the NHL in a while – so we will today!&nbsp;NHL bettors will remember that we normally want to bet the moneyline. &nbsp;Sometimes, if you really love a favorite, you can bet the puckline. &nbsp;For instance, if you really want to bet on a heavy favorite, you can avoid a -250 range or worse – and take your team -1.5 goals and improve your odds. &nbsp;However, then your team needs to win by 2 or more goals. &nbsp;&nbsp;In today's NHL action, we circled the Minnesota Wild. &nbsp;They are a slight underdog – and several of our systems like the Wild.&nbsp; There are also &nbsp;sharps on the Wild; plus the under looks interesting. &nbsp;Happy Almost-Friday! &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

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