The title of this blog post was going to be, anything from:
- Every Half-Point Matters, to,
- Shopping for the Best Line, to,
- Betting Lines are Sharp, to,
- Sportsbook Profit Margins, and other related topics.
All of these ideas apply! And why do we discuss?
On Thursday morning, we highlighted the Philadelphia 76ers at -4.5 point favorites as a value play. We also mentioned that when betting favorites, it often pays to bet on the early side. Indeed, we got down at Philly -4.5 but by early evening, some books were pricing Philly at -5. And, the lines are generally sharp - meaning that, on average, the lines represent fair value. (And, of course, the 76ers happened to win by 5 points!)
- Sports books generally try to balance risk (and money bet) on both sides of the bet.
- However, the vig or -110 commission that sportsbooks collect, gives them some leeway.
- To maximize profit margins, sportsbooks sometimes lean the line slightly to increase their profit margins!
This is the type of edge that our Sports Investing Club tries to capture.
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