Our normal Blog post schedule is on:
- The Weekend (Saturday or Sunday),
- Tuesday, and
- Thursday.
However, our SIC (SportsInvestingClub) team was excited about Game 7 of the NBA Semi-Finals, so we will take the opportunity to publish Tuesday's edition early – and study the sports marketplace and describe what we see.
What do the numbers say about this evening's game between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat?
- Background:
- Boston entered this year's playoffs as one of favorites to win the NBA title. And certainly, the Celtics were the favorite in this series.
- After Miami went up three games to none, many analysts talked about their team dynamics (whole greater than the sum) and Roster Construction.
- Public Betting: The first thing we circled was the low percentage of point spread bets on the Celtics. A large majority of bets are on Miami. This shows that there is some contrarian value on the Celtics, giving the points.
- Actual Dollars Bet: We study the actual dollars bet to see if the bigger bettors (and typically smart money) is different than the percentage of bets. This indicator is neutral; the percentage of dollars bet is similar to the actual percentage of bets. The sharps do not lean one way or the other.
- Overall, we see some value on the Celtics -7 or -7.5.
- Interestingly, the sports marketplace shows two potential types of plays – that you might consider, based on your rooting interests:
- On the Moneyline, we see signs of smart money taking Miami (and getting some nice odds). You can't blame bettors for taking this bet since this is a Game 7!
- Contrarian bettors might go for the Celtics and give the points.
Enjoy the game!
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