With so much attention on the Super Bowl, the oddsmakers and bettors have taken positions – and the regular sports marketplace figures are tighter than normal. Thus – our regular filters – which are very selective have not triggered.
However, due to the very large “handle” (value of dollars bet – as well as – the number of bets) – we can actually see value in the Super Bowl. While the number of bets leans towards the Philadelphia Eagles, larger bets are on the KC Chiefs.
This implies that sharp money is on KC. The articles we have been reading from our contacts and good sources (several we know personally) – generally analyze sporting events using different angles.
This year's Super Bowl is an exercise of strength of schedule (which favors KC) vs. recent blowout wins (which may overvalue the Eagles). As usual, the edges may only lead to an edge in the 55% range – so please bet with your head!
If interested in the Total: this is very tight. The Under is generally the place to be – but we lean to the Over based on the team offenses and defenses.
One interesting stat is that while the point spread is just KC+1.5, the numbers show that more than 50% of the games will end with a double-digit margin of victory. We took a flyer on that.
Super Bowl articles
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-obscure-super-bowl-prop-bet-will-baffle-you/
https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/2023-super-bowl-who-will-win-the