Saturday means college sports. And MARCH means March Madness is nearly here.
Let's take a look at some of the tools we have for March Madness and College Basketball.
- The Betting Percentage statistic remains a core statistic. It tells us which way the Public is going. When the Public is 70% or more on one team, it often pays to go contrarian and bet on the team with less than 30% of the bets., When we first started studying this statistic more than 20 years ago, the long-term edge measured about 4% to 6% (meaning you could win at about a 55% rate). As more bettors learned of this edge, the edge has been reduced about 33% – but it remains. Let this contrarian method help to filter your plays!
- The Money Percentage is a more recent tool – and this edge remains steadier. For instance, if, say 25% of the bets are on some seemingly weaker underdog – but the actual Money percent is 50%, we know that larger-sized bets are on this underdog. Sharps (or "Smart Money Syndicates" such as the original “Computer Group” earning long-term money in the sports marketplace) are betting significant dollars relative to the casual sports fan or bettor betting $10 to $50 on a game. Follow the Big Money with Money Percentage for an inherent edge.
- Our SIC (Sports Investing Club) is keen on College Hoops and developed a Valuation Tool for the Top 25 College Basketball Teams. You can sort teams by value -- and use this as an additional filter.
One game that satsifies several of these filters is today's TCU-Oklahoma game. Hint: at the time of this writing, a small minority of the bets (less than 20%) of the bets were coming in on Oklahoma. BUT money was almost equally split. Smart money is on OK! Note that there are several games like this in the early set of games.
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